Results of Diplomacy Offset Against Lower Oil Prices

 

For president Rouhani, sanctions relief as result of the P5+1 negotiations were crucial element of his political promise to improve life of Iranians. But with the lower oil price around $40, the partially lifted sanctions do not make a difference, nor will it change the “Good Guy Bad Guy” status between  president Hassan Rouhani and the supreme leader Ali Khamenei. 

 

The only partially lifted sanctions limit trade with the US and Asia. That steers Iran initially towards Europe for unblocked assets, necessary funding and economic growth. 

Iran is a state sponsor of terrorism. Since 2008, intelligence and AML operations focused on the financial ties of Iran with the Taliban and the Hezbollah money laundering service that were and now again are a vital part of its strategy for Hezbollah and Hamas. Trade promotions and lifted financial sanctions in Europe increased that threat significantly. 

 

For Iran and Pakistan the threat of the Khorasan Province branch is active across the whole of Afghanistan plus the adjacent parts of Pakistan, Iran and the countries in Central Asia. Al Qaeda's ISIS strategy exploits and reinforces ethnic and political divides, sow division and discord inside Iran. 

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- ISIS plans massive attack on Israel
- Al Qaeda’s global strategy bridges continents with ‘Motivation by Events’
- Synergy between Crime and Ideology in the Diaspora 

 

Ultrascan-HUMINT-services will continue to monitor 24/7; plans, operations and strategy changes from inside these organizatons

 

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